—Forecast Projects Increase of 5.3 Percent by May 2017—
CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled services provider, today released its CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ data for May 2016 which shows home prices are up both year over year and month over month.
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 5.9 percent in May 2016 compared with May 2015 and increased month over month by 1.3 percent in May 2016 compared with April 2016,* according to the CoreLogic HPI.
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 5.3 percent on a year-over-year basis from May 2016 to May 2017, and on a month-over-month basis home prices are expected to increase 0.8 percent from May 2016 to June 2016. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.
“Housing remained an oasis of stability in May with home prices rising year over year between 5 percent and 6 percent for 22 consecutive months,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “The consistently solid growth in home prices has been driven by the highest resale activity in nine years and a still-tight housing inventory.”
“Price appreciation continues to be fairly broad-based across the U.S. From a regional perspective, the Pacific Northwest continues to be the hottest area for home-price growth, with Oregon and Washington leading the way,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “The recent turbulence in financial markets should lead to modestly lower mortgage rates, which will provide even more support to the steadily improving real estate recovery.”
Full-month May 2016 national data can be found at the CoreLogic Home Price Insights page.
*April data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.
The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate s and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the Single-Family Combined tier representing the most comprehensive set of properties (including all sales for Single-Family Attached and Single-Family Detached properties). The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states. This month’s release incorporates a variety of modeling and other enhancements to the HPI and its forecast, including a 14 percent expansion in number of transaction pairs and extension of the HPI Forecast to a 30-year horizon.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a thirty-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—Single-Family Combined (both Attached and Detached) and Single-Family Combined excluding distressed sales. As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, CBSA and ZIP Code-levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95-percent statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2.0 percent margin of error for the index.
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CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled services provider. The company's combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
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