Bryan & Allison's Real Estate Report - 12/31/13
Thank you for reading our final blog post for 2013. In this post you will find information about recent home prices, sales figures, foreclosure data, and much more.
Look next week for our first newsletter of 2014, which will include housing predictions for the New Year. For now, take a look at the latest news and information:
Home Prices & Sales
HomeDex Report shows prices up and down
NSDCAR December 2013 HomeDex Reports provide November 2013 housing statistics in two separate reports, featuring North San Diego County and full San Diego County statistics. Here is a snapshot of the November housing report:
S&P/Case-Shiller composites up 13.6% year-over-year
Data through October 2013 released by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-ShillerHome Price Indices showed that the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted year-over-year gains of 13.6 percent, their highest gain since February 2006 and the 17th consecutive month that both composites increased on an annual basis.
SD home prices, sales dip in November from October
San Diego single-family detached home sales and prices decreased slightly in November from October, according to the California Association of Realtors.
In San Diego, closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in November were down 16.8 percent from October and down 13.5 percent from November 2012.
The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in San Diego fell 0.8 percent from $477,130 in October to $473,360 in November. The November price represents an increase of 17.2 percent from November 2012 when the median price was $403,990.
SD homebuyer speed faster than in 2012
San Diego’s homebuyer speed increased slightly in November from October, while homes took slightly longer to sell, according to Redfin's Fastest Markets Report for November 2013. In November, 27.8 percent of homes went under contract in two weeks, up slightly from 27.1 percent in October and down from 37.3 percent in November 2012.
Across 23 metro areas, 27.2 percent of homes went under contract in two weeks, up slightly from 26.9 percent in October. Although homebuyers remain frustrated with the number of desirable homes available for sale, they are ready to move quickly when they find a home they like.
The median number of days a San Diego home spent on the market before going under contract was 23 in November, an increase from 20 days in October and 20 days in November 2012.
While the percent of homes selling in two weeks or less remained steady, homes overall took a bit longer to sell than last month. For all U.S. homes across the 23 metro markets, the median number of days a home spent on the market before going under contract grew to 34 from 31 days in October.
County housing sales down 10.5% in November
San Diego’s housing market took a breather in November, registering fewer sales but the median price increased nearly 16 percent year over year to $415,000, according to Dataquick, the La Jolla real estate research firm.
Sales in San Diego County last month were 3,018, down 10.5 percent from the same month last year, and off nearly 14 percent from the total sales in October, Dataquick said.
For the six-county Southern California region, the median price for houses sold in November was $385,000, up nearly 20 percent from November 2012, and up 0.3 percent from October.
The regional median price has risen on a year over year basis for 20 consecutive months, with the gains ranging from 10.8 percent to 28.3 percent, Dataquick reported.
Dataquick President John Walsh said November sales for the region were “underwhelming,” and blamed the fall on a lack of inventory and the government shutdown in October.
“Meanwhile, prices aren’t soaring anymore but they’re also proving to be sticky” Walsh said.
Much of the price appreciation was attributed to more sales in the middle and upper price ranges, and fewer in the lowest price points. Last month, 32 percent of all sales in the region were for houses above $500,000, up from about 25 percent in November 2012.
Cash buyers made up 27 percent of the sales, down from 34 percent one year earlier.
Negative equity falls in San Diego area
In the San Diego-Carlsbad area, 11.4 percent, or 66,899, of all residential properties with a mortgage were in negative equity as of the third quarter 2013, according to CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX).
This is down from 13.6 percent, or 79,326 properties, in the second quarter of 2013. An additional 2.4 percent, or 14,128 residential properties, were in near-negative equity for third quarter 2013 compared to 2.7 percent, or 16,009, in second quarter 2013.
Negative equity, often referred to as being 'underwater' or 'upside down,' means borrowers owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. Negative equity can occur because of a decline in value, an increase in mortgage debt or a combination.
Nationwide, about 791,000 more residential properties returned to positive equity during the third quarter of 2013, and the total number of mortgaged residential properties with equity stands at 42.6 million.
Industry data shows 1,256,000 loans in foreclosure
The industry’s foreclosure inventory contracted again in November upon continued improvements on the housing and economic fronts. Although on a monthly basis, the inventory of homes in foreclosure fell slightly by 1.72 percent, year-over-year, it was down 28.81 percent, Lender Processing Services (LPS) reports.
The data and analytics firm released a preview of its November 2013 month-end mortgage performance statistics, showing there are now 1,256,000 mortgage loans in foreclosure, or 2.5 percent of all outstanding mortgages nationwide.
Delinquencies rose month-over-month by 2.63 percent but overall, the national delinquency rate has trended down this year. LPS says November’s delinquency rate of
6.45 percent (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) is 9.41 percent below November 2012 and represents a decline of just over 10 percent year-to-date.
The number of properties with mortgages 30 or more days past due but not in foreclosure tallied 3,241,000 as of November month-end. Of those, 1,283,000 were seriously delinquent, meaning 90 or more days past due but not yet in foreclosure.
Combining the number of delinquent loans and those that are part of the foreclosure inventory shows there are a total of 4,497,000 non-current home mortgages in the United States, according to LPS’ report.
Other News & Information
Unrealistic rate expectations threaten housing recovery
Despite a reported rise in homebuyer confidence in the third quarter—the first this year—unrealistic mortgage rate expectations could lead the housing recovery astray as the Federal Reserve looks to ease its stimulus program, according to recent reports from Redfin, a national real estate broker and technology provider.
Twenty-eight percent of homebuyers said now is a good time to buy a home, up 4 percentage points from last quarter, according to Redfin’s Real-Time Buyer Survey conducted in November.
Another 58 percent of buyers said now is an “ok” time to purchase a home, down just 1 percentage point from last quarter’s 59 percent, according to Redfin.
Low inventory remained a top concern with 60 percent of survey respondents citing this concern. Rising prices was also a popular concern, cited among 52 percent of survey respondents.
Rising mortgage rates popped up as a concern among 53 percent of survey respondents in last quarter’s survey and then dropped to 41 percent this quarter.
However, Redfin finds consumer attitudes toward interest rates quite troublesome. A majority—83 percent—of
buyers believe a “normal” interest rate for a fixed-rate, 30-year mortgage loan is less than 5 percent.
Furthermore, a significant portion of homebuyers—42 percent—say they “would be unable or unwilling to buy a home if rates rose further.”
'Boomerang' buyers expected to boost recovery in New Year
Housing foreclosure authorities LoanSafe.org and YouWalkAway.com have created a new website to help people re-enter the housing market after having been through a previous foreclosure. Te website is called AfterForeclosure.com and helps those most affected by the housing crisis take charge of their financial future and own their own home again.
Based on a poll of their combined members, LoanSafe.org and AfterForeclosure.com are confident that these potential buyers will make 2014 the year of the “boomerang” buyer.
Changes in lending guidelines and population shifts make these buyers essential to the recovery of the housing market. Jon Maddux, co-founder of AfterForeclosure.com says: “Alienating this large and growing pool of potential buyers does not bode well for the market in an environment where natural housing advancement has been largely disrupted.”
College graduates are laden with student debt and limited employment options, while baby boomers are aging. Maddux continues: “There are literally millions of ex-homeowners who may be qualified to buy a home again, but are unaware of the help that is readily available to them through existing and new loan programs.”
According to a poll of LoanSafe.org and AfterForeclosure.com’s members:
Record rebound in home equity gives owners new options
The biggest story in American real estate in 2013 hasn't gotten the attention it deserves, so let's shout this out: Homeowners' net equity holdings soared $2.2 trillion from the third quarter of 2012 to the third quarter of this year, according to new data collected by the Federal Reserve.
This is a record rebound for a 12-month period. And it's crucially important in personal financial terms for hundreds of thousands of owners who for years have been underwater on their mortgages, meaning their homes wouldn't sell for enough to pay off the loan.
They now have options they didn't have before: They can sell their homes and not have to bring money to the closing. They may be able to borrow against their equity to help pay for college tuition, home improvements and other purposes. They may be able to refinance their mortgages without having to use a government-aided program.
Amid new regulations and increased focus on underwriting standards, the Federal Housing Finance Agency recently released a working paper on the impact of down payment amounts on loan performance at the GSEs and Federal Housing Administration (FHA).
Overall, the federal agency found a nonlinear relationship between loan-to-value (LTV) ratio and foreclosure rates. FHFA also determined that credit score plays an important role alongside LTV ratios in determining the likelihood of foreclosure.
LTV ratios hold a stronger relationship with foreclosure rates among FHA loans than GSE loans, according to FHFA. “The implication is that the same level of change in original LTV requirement would have a larger impact for FHA borrowers than for GSE borrowers,” the FHFA stated in its working paper.
Among loans with FICO scores of 620 and debt-to-income (DTI) ratios of 31 percent, the foreclosure rate for GSE
loans with 100 percent LTV is a little more than twice that of loans with 80 percent LTV.
For FHA loans with the same credit characteristics, the foreclosure rate is almost three times as much among loans with LTVs of 100 percent compared to loans with LTVs of 80 percent.
Bryan & Allison Devore
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices|California Properties
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We are experienced Rancho Carrillo Realtors. We offer affordable Rancho Carrillo homes for sale. Many refer to us as the Best Rancho Carrillo Real Estate agents since we have over 105 Rancho Carrillo home sales. Feel free to contact us for all your Rancho Carrillo Real Estate needs.
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